Inman’s ‘3 Myths’ Post: What San Diego Buyers Need to Hear Now
There’s a short piece on Inman’s Instagram right now calling out three myths that keep buyers stuck: a coming flood of inventory, the return of 3% mortgage rates, and a looming home price crash. The gist: the data doesn’t support any of those outcomes, and the better question is, “If not now, what needs to change for you to feel ready?”
As a San Diego agent who lives this market every day, I agree — and I want to translate those national takeaways into our local reality from Carlsbad to North Park and down to Imperial Beach.
Myth 1: “A big wave of inventory is about to hit”
Inman’s point: the inventory surge buyers are waiting for hasn’t materialized nationally. Locally, the story is even tighter.
- San Diego is supply-constrained by geography (coast, canyons, freeways) and policy (slow approvals, limited large-scale new builds). Even in tract-heavy areas like Carmel Valley and Scripps Ranch, turnover is modest.
- Practical snapshot: new listings pop up, but they’re absorbed fast if they’re move-in ready and well-priced. Look at 12956 Carmel Creek in Carmel Valley 92130 — a 3bd/3ba, 1,604 sq ft home at $1,328,000 ($828/sq ft) that hit the market with zero days on market. Well-positioned homes like this attract immediate attention from buyers focused on SDUHSD schools and proximity to One Paseo and Del Mar Highlands.
- Coastal condos and entry-level options also prove the point. 3523 Caminito Sierra in Carlsbad 92009 — 1bd/1ba, 773 sq ft at $499,000 ($646/sq ft) — is exactly the kind of listing that gets scooped quickly by first-time buyers and investors who want La Costa adjacency.
Bottom line: waiting for a flood in Encinitas, North Park, or Mission Hills is like waiting for a minus tide in July — it happens rarely and it’s brief. Plan for a trickle, not a torrent.
Myth 2: “Rates will drop back to 3% and then I’ll buy”
The Inman post reminds us: 3% rates were an anomaly. In San Diego, if you’re timing a once-a-generation rate to align with your perfect home on, say, a quiet street in Mission Hills or near Moonlight Beach in Encinitas, you’ll likely miss multiple good opportunities.
What to do instead:
- Model payments at today’s rate with a plan to refinance if/when rates ease. Sellers are increasingly open to concessions that buy down rates — we’re using this in Scripps Ranch and Eastlake deals to get buyers into comfortable payments.
- Focus on the monthly cost versus the sticker rate. For example, 10630 Oakbend Dr in Scripps Ranch 92131 — 3bd/2.5ba, 1,920 sq ft at $1,450,000 ($755/sq ft) — pairs a strong school district and community amenities with potential seller credits that can meaningfully shift your cash flow.
Remember: San Diego’s job base (biotech in Sorrento Valley, defense, tourism) and lifestyle demand cushion values even when rates are choppy.
Myth 3: “Prices are about to crash”
Nationally, the Inman piece says the data doesn’t support a crash narrative. Locally, our micro-markets remain resilient due to chronic undersupply and persistent demand.
- North County Coast: Even small homes carry premium pricing because of beach proximity. 1241 Orkney Lane in Cardiff-by-the-Sea 92007 — 2bd/1ba, 816 sq ft at $959,000 ($1,175/sq ft) — shows how lifestyle premiums hold.
- Urban-core charm: In San Diego 92120, a 4bd/2ba at 6110 Romany (2,174 sq ft) is pending at $1,637,000 ($753/sq ft) — proof that well-located, updated homes with yard space still command strong offers.
- Oceanside momentum: 1100 Civic Center Dr 92054 — 3bd/2ba, 1,416 sq ft at $900,000 ($636/sq ft) — reflects the ongoing renaissance near the transit center and pier, where walkability and ADU potential keep buyer interest high.
Could we see seasonal softening or neighborhood-level plateaus? Absolutely. But a broad “crash” would require a supply shock or a severe jobs hit — neither is on San Diego’s horizon today.
The better question for SD buyers and sellers
Inman mentions one question that reframes the conversation. Here’s my San Diego spin:
- Buyers: If prices don’t crash and rates don’t hit 3%, what monthly payment, neighborhood, and timeline would make a move worth it? Let’s define your “go” conditions by ZIP — Carmel Valley vs. Encinitas vs. North Park — and build a plan that uses credits, buydowns, and targeted searches.
- Sellers: If inventory stays lean, what small prep moves (paint, landscaping, light staging) will maximize appeal? In markets like Mission Hills and Carmel Valley, strategic presentation can be the difference between one solid offer and three great ones.
- Owners: If you love your 3% mortgage but need more space, consider ADU paths in areas like Imperial Beach and Vista. Leverage today’s rents and tomorrow’s refinance options while keeping your low-rate primary.
San Diego isn’t waiting for a different market — it’s rewarding the buyers and sellers who adapt to this one. If you’ve been on the sidelines, let’s talk through your numbers by neighborhood and make a plan that’s realistic for 2026, not 2021.
Looking for help with navigating today’s myths vs. reality in San Diego? Contact Sam to get started.